Potrero Hill drug-crime anomaly (ID: 705907) — September 2025

💊 Drug Crime Incidents — Potrero Hill anomaly (ID: 705907)

What changed

Potrero Hill recorded 32 drug-crime reports in September 2025 vs a 24‑month baseline average of 6.75 — a +374% jump.
This represented about 6.9% of the September citywide total (462 incidents).
In the citywide neighborhood ranking for September, Potrero Hill was 4th by absolute count (behind Tenderloin 146, Mission 129, South of Market 109).

Charts

Anomaly detail (this request): [CHART:anomaly:705907]
Neighborhood time series (Potrero Hill highlighted): [CHART:time_series_id:85039]
Neighborhood values map (September 2025): [CHART:map:2115]
Neighborhood change map (September vs typical; green/red): [CHART:map:2116]

What’s driving the spike

1) Concentrated enforcement in District 10

District 10 also spiked in September: 41 incidents, roughly +225% vs its 24‑month average for the month. See anomaly: [CHART:anomaly:705948].
Resolution patterns: In Potrero Hill, all 32 September reports were resolved as “Cite or Arrest Adult.” That is consistent with proactive operations rather than incidental reporting.

2) Documentation pattern (“Initial Supplement” reports)

Citywide, “Initial Supplement” report types jumped ~90% in September. See anomaly: [CHART:anomaly:705895].
In Potrero Hill specifically, all 32 records in September were labeled “Initial Supplement.”
To check for inflation from follow-on documentation, we deduplicated by case:
- Rows: 32 | Distinct incident_id: 32 | Distinct incident_number (case): 31
- Net effect: only one extra report beyond unique cases — documentation appears to have minimal impact on Potrero Hill’s September total.

3) Temporal and spatial clustering point to specific operations

When (Potrero Hill, Sep 2025):
- Sep 8: 17 incidents (53%)
- Sep 2: 6 incidents (19%)
- Sep 3: 4 incidents (13%)
- Other dates: 5 incidents
Where (Potrero Hill, Sep 2025):
- Incidents cluster around 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST (Bayview Police District boundary area).
- See point map of September locations: [CHART:map:2188]

Citywide context

Citywide in September 2025: 462 drug incidents (+15% vs 24‑month avg of ~403). [CHART:time_series_id:85039]
Year-to-date (through Oct 7, 2025): +46–48% vs 2024, depending on cut date. [CHART:time_series_id:86187]
Resolution pattern citywide remains dominated by “Cite or Arrest Adult.” [CHART:time_series_id:85038]
Geography: September saw the Tenderloin slightly below its 24‑month September average, while the Mission and Districts 9/10 were well above average — consistent with some south/eastward shift in activity.

Representative Potrero Hill incidents (September 2025)

Each line shows date/time, location, type/subtype, resolution.

2025‑09‑01 10:00 — 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST — Drug Offense / Drug Violation — Cite or Arrest Adult (Initial Supplement)
2025‑09‑02 06:00 — 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST — Drug Offense / Drug Violation — Cite or Arrest Adult (Initial Supplement)
2025‑09‑02 10:00 — 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST — Drug Offense / Drug Violation — Cite or Arrest Adult (Initial Supplement)
2025‑09‑03 07:00 — 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST — Drug Offense / Drug Violation — Cite or Arrest Adult (Initial Supplement)
2025‑09‑08 06:00 — 17TH ST \ CAROLINA ST — Drug Offense / Drug Violation — Cite or Arrest Adult (Initial Supplement)

Note: All 32 Potrero Hill reports in September carried the “Initial Supplement” report type and “Cite or Arrest Adult” resolution.

Interpretation

The spike is real in activity terms (31 unique cases) and appears tied to targeted enforcement on a few days at a specific corner.
Citywide shifts (Mission/D9 and D10 up; TL/SoMa not leading September) suggest displacement and/or refocused operations rather than a uniform citywide surge.
Given the operational signature (all “Cite or Arrest Adult,” heavy single-day clustering), October may revert without continued operations; if underlying markets have shifted, elevated baselines could persist.

What to watch next

October trajectory in Potrero Hill: does it sustain or normalize?
Report type mix in Potrero Hill: track the share of “Initial Supplement” locally to separate documentation effects from incident growth.
Micro‑hotspots: continue point‑level tracking around 17th & Carolina to target prevention, outreach, and environmental fixes.
Cross-systems signals: compare with overdose‑related 911 calls and service deployments in nearby corridors (Mission/Bayview) for triangulation.

Data and methods

Source: SFPD Incident Reports (2018–present), DataSF endpoint wg3w-h783.
Definition: “Drug Crime Incidents” include Incident Category in {Drug Offense, Drug Violation}.
Period analyzed: September 1–30, 2025; neighborhood = Potrero Hill; plus citywide/neighborhood comparisons.
Key queries (sampled to relevant time/place; LIMITs applied):
- Potrero Hill Sep 2025 incidents with coordinates, category, resolution, report type (LIMIT 1000).
- Daily counts within Potrero Hill Sep 2025 (LIMIT 1000).
- Citywide neighborhood counts for Sep 2025 (LIMIT 1000).
- Case-level dedup check (distinct incident_number).
Important caveats:
- Police dataset can include secondary/supplemental reports tied to a single case (same incident_number). In Potrero Hill Sep 2025, this inflated the count by ~1 over case-level.
- Some severe incidents may be withheld for privacy; neighborhood boundaries are assigned from the recorded intersection and can vary slightly.

Visuals referenced

Potrero Hill anomaly: [CHART:anomaly:705907]
Drug incidents by neighborhood (time series): [CHART:time_series_id:85039]
Citywide resolution mix (context): [CHART:time_series_id:85038]
District 10 anomaly (context): [CHART:anomaly:705948]
Neighborhood values map (Sep 2025): [CHART:map:2115]
Neighborhood change map (delta, Sep vs typical): [CHART:map:2116]
Potrero Hill incident locations (Sep 2025): [CHART:map:2188]

Analyst note: We focused queries tightly on September 2025 and Potrero Hill to keep the data targeted and interpretable. Findings are based on incident reports (not adjudication outcomes).

Potrero Hill Drug Crime Surge, Sep 2025 (ID 705907)